bluff

A bluff is a bet made with a hand currently weaker than the opponent's, hoping the opponent folds the better hand. The difference between a pure bluff and a semi-bluff: a pure bluff has no equity backing (it basically always loses if called).

Detailed Explanation

A bluff's +EV comes entirely from fold equity:

EV(bluff) = (fold rate × current pot) - (call rate × bet lost)

Simplified rule: the minimum fold rate a bluff needs = bet / (bet + current pot). Example: bet 100 into a pot of 100 — you need a 50% fold rate to break even.

A successful bluff needs:

1. The target's range contains a meaningful share of bluff-catchers (medium-strength hands that can fold)
2. Reasonable sizing: too small and they don't fold enough; too large and the cost is too high
3. Consistent story: your earlier-street actions and this bluff must combine into a believable strong-hand narrative
4. The right blockers: pick a hand that blocks the opponent's value range and doesn't block their bluff range (unblockers)

Bluffs and value bets must be proportional — value with no bluffs means opponents always fold; bluffs with no value means opponents always call. The healthy ratio is derived from pot odds: the calling threshold the opponent faces is the upper bound on your bluff:value ratio.

Common Use Cases

• Large river bluff: when the opponent's range is heavy on bluff-catchers, a pure bluff has high EV
• Polarized betting: in a river overbet, bluffs sit at the opposite end of the range from value
• Multi-street barrels with a consistent story: flop cbet → turn barrel → river shove with value and bluffs running in parallel