ICM

ICM (Independent Chip Model) is the math model that converts tournament chips into real expected prize value. In tournament decisions, ICM often overturns conclusions reached by chipEV alone.

Detailed Explanation

The biggest difference between tournaments and cash games is that tournament chips have non-linear marginal value.

• Cash: 1 chip = $1, always
• Tournament: the value gained going from 100 chips to 200 is much larger than going from 10,000 to 10,100

This is because tournament prize structures are tiered. The winner takes ~30% of the prize pool, 2nd place ~20%, 3rd ~12%, and so on. Winning 100 more chips doesn't mean winning $100 more in expectation — it depends on the marginal probability that the extra chips push you up a place.

ICM simulates many tournament outcomes to compute each player's true expected dollar value from their current chip stack.

Common Use Cases

• The bubble: just before the money, chips' defensive value far exceeds aggressive value — ICM forces tightening
• Pay jumps: near a place jump (e.g. 10th to 9th), ICM pressure peaks
• Deal-making: ICM is the mathematical basis for table chops

Common Mistakes

• Playing tournaments on chipEV: ignoring ICM leads to over-aggression on the bubble
• Strict ICM at short stacks: ICM effects are smaller for short stacks — they should think closer to chipEV
• Mindless big-stack pressure: a big stack's ICM edge needs a backing range — otherwise it's just empty aggression